Signal quality is highly uneven across sectors
Why it matters
Energy and Industrials show strong predictability while Technology is near-noise.
Deploy sector-aware capital allocation instead of uniform market-wide exposure.
An end-to-end machine learning pipeline extracting alpha signals from S&P 500 earnings call transcripts using FinBERT, RAG, and gradient-boosted models.
Energy and Industrials show strong predictability while Technology is near-noise.
Deploy sector-aware capital allocation instead of uniform market-wide exposure.
LightGBM’s stability is materially stronger than baseline alternatives.
Prioritize low-variance model behavior for live risk management.
Backtests indicate weak profitability net of costs at 5-day horizon.
Default to longer holding windows until execution edge improves.